Outside Italy, Silvio Berlusconi is often seen as a gaffe-prone buffoon engulfed by sex scandals, who is using — or abusing — his power to change the law to avoid being put on trial for corruption. A leader who, many argue, is undermining the judiciary and endangering democracy in his attempt to avoid appearing in court.
Inside his home nation though, the Italian Prime Minister remains a popular conservative leader who has so far overcome all the scandals over escorts and tax fraud allegations and is likely to survive — if not triumph — at regional elections to be held next month.
At rallies this week Mr Berlusconi’s usual ebullience was restored. He showed no sign on his face of the injuries caused by an assailant who threw a souvenir of Milan cathedral at him in December. He dismissed speculation about the carve up of his business empire as the result of his impending divorce, saying that he had "nothing to repent" in his relations with women ("I have always acted with a sense of responsibility and respect," he said) and joked that he would be sending Valentines Day messages "to all my girlfriends".
So what explains the endurance of the Berlusconi phenomenon? In part the answer lies in his control of the media. Eighty per cent of Italians get their information only from television, according to official figures. Mr Berlusconi not only owns the three main commercial television channels but as Prime Minister also exercises sway over RAI, the public broadcaster, which tends to be deferential towards him and downplay negative news about his actions.
Then there is the lack of an alternative: the Centre Left has been weak and divided since its defeat at the hands of the Centre Right a year and half ago and the departure from the political scene of Romano Prodi, the only man to have beaten Mr Berlusconi at the polls (in 1996, and again in 2006). Gianfranco Fini, co-leader of the ruling People of Liberty party and Speaker of the Lower House, is on frosty terms with Mr Berlusconi, but has yet to challenge him openly.
But the key to Mr Berlusconi's survival is his knack of being in tune with the popular mood. For all his wealth and power, he manages to convey an image of himself as an "ordinary guy", a self-made man who loves football and the company of beautiful women, and who gets away with breaking the rules in a country where out-foxing the state bureaucracy is a national sport.
He is also a consummate politican and communicator who turns setbacks to his advantage — portraying the Milan attack, for example, as the result of a "hate campaign" against him by the press and magistrates and turning it into a quasi-religious event by showing his bloodied face to the crowd and then forgiving his assailant.
The idea that the press and the judiciary are merely doing their job by trying to bring him to account is countered by the portrayal of Mr Berlusconi by his supporters as a victim under constant persecution. His use of escorts and parties involving scantily dressed showgirls from his television empire has engendered growing protests by feminists, as has his habit of offering political posts to attractive women with a showbusiness background.
But many Italians — and not only men — regard his divorce and sex scandals as "a private matter", saying they judge him by his political outlook, based on individual freedom and visceral anti-communism. As for corruption, well, Italy has a long history of shady politicians, and the system survives thanks to family ties and the black economy.
There are however clouds on the horizon: last year Italy suffered a 5 per cent drop in GDP, unemployment among young people is high, and today the Bank of Italy said that average family incomes had dropped by 4 per cent in two years. Mr Berlusconi has vowed to cut taxes, but has also admitted that there is no chance of doing so in the immediate future.
Caught off guard without his perma-tan make-up Mr Berlusconi, who will be 74 in September, sometimes appears tired (he suffers from chronic neck pain). His hopes of becoming head of state have been dashed by the scandals, and a poll this week in Corriere della Sera showed his approval rating had fallen back to 48 per cent after jumping to 56 per cent in a wave of sympathy after the Milan attack.
His attempts to push through new laws to restore his immunity from prosecution and annul the two revived corruption trials against him are running into opposition not only from the judiciary but also from President Napolitano. Mafia supergrasses continue to claim in court that Mr Berlusconi got his start in both business and politics thanks to Cosa Nostra backing — a charge he denies.
In a further blow Guido Bertolaso, one of Mr Berlusconi's most valued right-hand men as head of the Civil Protection agency, was this week placed under investigation over suspected corruption involving prostitution and kickbacks related to the building of facilities at La Maddalena in Sardinia at a cost of €327 million (£287 million) for last year’s G8 summit, which in the end Mr Berlusconi switched to L'Aquila.
Above all, the crunch will come in two weeks' time when the Supreme Court is due to decide whether to uphold the conviction last year of David Mills, Mr Berlusconi's former British tax lawyer and estranged husband of Tessa Jowell, the Olympics Minister, for taking a $600,000 bribe from Mr Berlusconi to give false evidence on his behalf in corruption trials in the 1990s.
Mr Berlusconi is himself on trial for allegedly giving the bribe, and has said that he will make a rare appearance in court at a hearing in Milan two days after the Supreme Court verdict. If Mr Mills's conviction is upheld as definitive, Mr Berlusconi will need all his showman's skill to persuade Italians yet again that he is — as he repeatedly claims — the victim of unjust persecution by a politically biased judiciary.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/world_agenda/article7023283.ece
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