Silvio Berlusconi has been through a torrid time in recent weeks, amid a spate of allegations about his relations with younger women. But on Wednesday the Italian prime minister will hope to draw a line under his problems when he hosts world leaders at the G8 summit in the Italian city of L’Aquila. The G8 is declining as an institution, eclipsed by the higher standing of the G20. But the G8 presidency still gives its incumbent the opportunity to grab parts of the global agenda and drive through change. Mr Berlusconi, more than most leaders in the developed world these days, needs to look as though he is making the most of the opportunity.
For weeks, stories about the 72-year-old Italian leader’s private life have been an utter embarrassment. But Mr Berlusconi’s reputation on the global stage has fallen for reasons that go well beyond recent headlines. After all, he has long had a reputation as a controversial and unpredictable figure. However, when the Italian premier was last in government – from 2001 to 2006 – the Bush administration needed to court him because Washington was in conflict with the two big players on the European continent: French president Jacques Chirac and German chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Today, all has changed. France and Germany both have strongly pro-American leaders. So Barack Obama does not have to be anything like as tolerant of Mr Berlusconi as his predecessor was.
Mr Berlusconi cannot be completely ignored, of course. He has a direct electoral mandate to govern (something that could not be said of Gordon Brown). Italy is a strong partner for the US in Afghanistan and is taking in Guantánamo detainees. But on many aspects of policy, he irritates Italy’s allies. On development aid and climate change – two key G8 issues – he appears to have no interest. On Iran, Italy has flip-flopped from the softest to the toughest of stances. On Russia, the US is tired of the way Mr Berlusconi presents himself as an interlocutor between Moscow and Washington. The notion is absurd.
On Tuesday in L’Aquila, Mr Berlusconi must raise his game. The omens are not good. The first time he presided over the G7 or G8 was in Naples in 1994 when he was issued with a court summons. The second time was in Genoa in 2001 when the summit was almost wrecked by protests. On Wednesday, Mr Berlusconi will be hoping for third time lucky. The rest of us can be forgiven for keeping expectations low.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
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